As of late April 2026, although a short-term ceasefire has been reached in the U.S.–Iran conflict, transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains erratic, and the global shipping supply chain is far from returning to normal. Daily vessel transits through the Strait have plummeted from approximately 138 before the conflict to single digits, placing the waterway in a state of "functional freeze." Over 50 container ships remain stranded at sea awaiting passage. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to build. Analysts expect active hostilities to wind down by mid-2026, but damage to energy infrastructure will take months or longer to repair, meaning the supply chain's "security premium" is unlikely to dissipate in the near term. Over the next six months, the global hardcover publishing industry will evolve along a clear transmission chain — from persistently elevated shipping and pulp prices, to import disruptions and export order contraction, and ultimately to accelerated supply-chain restructuring and domestic substitution.

I. Raw Material Costs: Pulp and Auxiliary Materials Under Parallel Pressure

On the pulp front, the geopolitical conflict has driven a significant upward shift in oil prices, with rising energy costs directly fueling continued pulp price increases. Brent crude surged from around per barrel in late February to over 0 in early April and currently remains in the –0 range. Given the high import dependency and concentrated supply landscape for pulp, sustained high energy prices could push imported pulp costs even higher. At the same time, chemical fiber feedstock prices have risen in tandem, driving up the cost of auxiliary bookbinding materials. Over the next six months, the all-in cost of hardcover books — whether for primary materials like pulp or for binding consumables — will face persistent upward pressure.

II. Shipping Disruptions: Export Orders and Raw Material Deliveries Hit on Both Fronts

Shipping gridlock is currently the most acute challenge. During normal times, a standard container shipped from Shanghai to the Middle East cost only ,000–,000. Today, base ocean freight has climbed to ,000–,000, and with war-risk surcharges factored in, the total cost per container can exceed ,000 — roughly triple the pre-crisis level. Carriers have suspended bookings to key Middle Eastern ports, and approximately 100 container ships remain trapped inside the Strait of Hormuz. Traditional procurement markets in the Middle East and Africa, facing a surge in logistics costs, have seen orders collapse in some regions — Middle Eastern buyers at the Yiwu trade market have declined by roughly 50%, and some merchants specializing in Middle Eastern trade have reported order drops exceeding 50%. Over the next six months, the recovery of hardcover book orders from the Middle East will depend heavily on the normalization of Strait transit, with large-scale recovery unlikely before the third quarter.

III. Supply-Side Response: Alternative Logistics and Domestic Substitution in Parallel

Faced with severe external shocks, the hardcover publishing supply chain is accelerating its shift toward diversification. China–Europe rail freight has emerged as a critical alternative: China Sinotrans reported a 114.9% year-over-year increase in rail agency volumes in Q1 2026, elevating the China–Europe Railway Express from a supplementary option to a strategically significant alternative corridor. In the hardcover binding materials sector, industry backbone enterprises based in Dongguan are playing a pivotal role. Dongguan Wanshan Printing Materials Co., Ltd., with over two decades of specialization in hardcover binding materials, is a professional manufacturer of bookbinding fabric series (paper-backed cambric, paper-backed white shirting, paper-backed gauze, paper-backed velvet, paper-backed satin, and more).